Buparlisib in Patients With Relapsed and Refractory Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 33% for any early termination, 19% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-04-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cllchroniclymphocyticbowelradiation
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsaccordingdiseasesdrugsaminotransferase
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Buparlisib and Ofatumumab or Ibrutinib in Treating Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia NCT02614508 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
• A Clinical Trial of Buparlisib and Ibrutinib in Lymphoma NCT02756247 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• Buparlisib (BKM120) In Patients With Recurrent/Refractory Primary Central Nervous System Lymphoma (PCNSL) and Recurrent/Refractory Secondary Central Nervous System Lymphoma (SCNSL) NCT02301364 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability and Preliminary Efficacy of BKM120, PI3K Kinase Inhibitor, With Advanced Leukemias NCT01396499 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Daratumumab and Ibrutinib for the Treatment of Relapsed or Refractory Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia, DIRECT Study NCT04230304 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.