Phase 2/3, Randomized, Double-Masked, Sham-Controlled Trial of QPI-1007 in Subjects With Acute Nonarteritic Anterior Ischemic Optic Neuropathy (NAION)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (370 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-07-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 22.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjects witheyeonsetkeydetermine
  Phrases that lowered it: effect ofthe effectstudy willthe studygood
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 9 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety Study of a Single IVT Injection of QPI-1007 in Chronic Optic Nerve Atrophy and Recent Onset NAION Patients NCT01064505 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Phase IIA Double-Masked Randomized Sham-Controlled Trial of QPI-1007 Delivered by a Single Intravitreal Injection to Subjects With Acute Primary Angle-Closure Glaucoma (APACG) NCT01965106 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• A 3-month Study to Assess the Safety of ONS-5010 in Subjects With Visual Impairment Due to Retinal Disorders NCT04516278 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• A Safety and Efficacy Study of NS2 in Patients With Anterior Uveitis NCT02406209 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of AIN457 in Patients With Active Non-infectious Uveitis NCT01095250 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.