An Efficacy and Safety Study of CNTO1959 (Guselkumab) in the Treatment of Participants With Generalized Pustular Psoriasis or Erythrodermic Psoriasis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (238 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-11-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: failuregreater thandlpotentialkidney
  Phrases that lowered it: psoriasisthe efficacyand safetyefficacy andsafety of
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 63 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Efficacy and Safety of CNTO 1959 (Guselkumab) in Participants With Moderate to Severe Plaque-type Psoriasis NCT02325219 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Comparative Efficacy of CNTO 1959 (Guselkumab) and Secukinumab for the Treatment of Moderate to Severe Plaque-type Psoriasis NCT03090100 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate CNTO 1959 in the Treatment of Patients With Moderate to Severe Plaque-type Psoriasis NCT01483599 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics (What the Body Does to the Drug), and Pharmacodynamics (What the Drug Does to the Body) of CNTO 1959 Following a Single Subcutaneous (Under the Skin) Administration in Japanese Participants With Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis NCT01484587 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• An Efficacy and Safety Study of Ustekinumab (CNTO 1275) in Participants With Plaque Psoriasis NCT00723528 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.