Efficacy and Safety of SAR156597 in the Treatment of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-08-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 798 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 57 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebopulmonarychronicoxygenartery
  Phrases that lowered it: participantssafety ofevaluateparticipantthe efficacy
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• To Evaluate the Effect of Different Doses of SAR156597 Given to Patients With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT01529853 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Study of TTI-101 in Participants With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis NCT05671835 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• JUNIPER: A Phase 2 Study to Evaluate the Safety, Biological Activity, and PK of ND-L02-s0201 in Subjects With IPF NCT03538301 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2, Randomized Dose-ranging Study to Evaluate the Efficacy of Tralokinumab in Adults With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis NCT01629667 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• A Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy of PRM-151 in Subjects With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT02550873 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.