Herbal-Based Medication vs. Placebo in Preventing Acute Otitis Media in Children at High Risk of Recurrence
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2017-10-31, after 2013-10-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: acutemediachildrenconcurrentuncontrolled
Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andclinical trialrespiratoryplacebo -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 1 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 4.92 (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 1 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 4.92 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 46 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 15 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy of Short-Course Antimicrobial Treatment for Children With Acute Otitis Media and Impact on Resistance NCT01511107 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials terminated
- Four Arm Safety & Efficacy With Antipyrine and Benzocaine Otic Solution in Children With Acute Otitis Media NCT02037893 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of Benzocaine for Pain Relief in Children Presenting With Acute Otitis Media NCT02092454 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
- Phase III Study Evaluating Topical Benzocaine for Treatment of Acute Otitis Media in Children NCT03116737 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of OP0201 as an Adjunct Treatment for Acute Otitis Media in Infants and Children Aged 6 to 24 Months NCT03818815 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.