Phase Ib and Phase II Studies of MK-3475 in Combination + for Renal Cell Carcinoma:

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-12-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: celltransplantcancerregistrationdisease
  Phrases that lowered it: mkdrugsbleedingsafety ofaminotransferase
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 32.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, urogenital: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pembrolizumab (Anti-PD-1) and AMG386 (Angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2) in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumor NCT03239145 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Phase II Nivolumab and Ramucirumab for Patients With Previously-Treated Mesothelioma NCT03502746 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials terminated
• Pembrolizumab + Imprime PGG for Metastatic Non-small Cell Lung Cancer After Progression on First-Line Therapy: Big Ten Cancer Research Consortium BTCRC-LUN15-017 NCT03003468 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab and Reirradiation in Bevacizumab Naïve and Bevacizumab Resistant Recurrent Glioblastoma NCT03661723 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• A Study Combining Eribulin Mesylate With Avelumab in Cisplatin Ineligible Metastatic Urothelial Cell Cancer Patients NCT03502681 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.