A Phase 1/2 Study of an Investigational Drug, ALN-CC5, in Healthy Adult Volunteers and Patients With PNH

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (1,462 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: multipleascendingtolerability pharmacokineticssubjectand pharmacodynamics
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyvolunteerssubjectsevaluate theto evaluate
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 10 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dose-Escalation Study of ALXN1210 IV in Participants With Paroxysmal Nocturnal Hemoglobinuria (PNH) NCT02598583 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Open-label, Multiple Ascending Dose Study of Ravulizumab (ALXN1210) in Participants With Paroxysmal Nocturnal Hemoglobinuria (PNH) NCT02605993 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• A Phase IIa Study to Assess the Safety, Efficacy, and Pharmacokinetics of Subcutaneously Administered Pegcetacoplan (APL-2) in Subjects With PNH NCT03593200 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Safety and Pharmacokinetics of TT30 in Subjects With Paroxysmal Nocturnal Hemoglobinuria (PNH) NCT01335165 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated
• Pilot Study to Assess Safety, Preliminary Efficacy and Pharmacokinetics of S.C. Pegcetacoplan (APL-2) in PNH Subjects. NCT02588833 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.