A Multi-Center Study of Lapatinib in Patients With Trastuzumab-refractory Metastatic Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: carcinoma ofsquamousfunctionthe skincell carcinoma
  Phrases that lowered it: the efficacylinecombinationnormalconsent form
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 1.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 89 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 70 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 88.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 40737 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Chemotherapy and Lapatinib or Trastuzumab in Treating Women With HER2/Neu-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00667251 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• A Study of Trastuzumab-Mcc-DM1 Administered Intravenously to Patients With HER2-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00679211 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• T-DM1 and Non-pegylated Liposomal Doxorubicin in Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2)-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02562378 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Trastuzumab Emtansine in Chinese Participants With Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2)-Positive Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT03084939 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Study of the Pharmacokinetics and Safety of Trastuzumab Emtansine in Chinese Participants With Locally Advanced Inoperable or Metastatic HER2+ Breast Cancer NCT03153163 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.