LME636 in the Relief of Persistent Ocular Discomfort in Subjects With Severe Dry Eye Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-10-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: in subjectsmay applyother protocolcriteria mayprior
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theocularto evaluatetopicalvehicle
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An 8-week Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of NGF Eye Drops Solution Versus Vehicle in Patients With Dry Eye NCT03019627 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of PL9643 Ophthalmic Solution in Subjects With Dry Eye NCT04268069 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Study to Evaluation the Safety and Efficacy of Orally Administered KL7016 in Patients With Dry Eye Syndrome NCT02092207 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Trial of CF101 to Treat Patients With Dry Eye Disease NCT01235234 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of ECF843 vs Vehicle in Subjects With Dry Eye Disease NCT04391894 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.