DC Migration Study for Newly-Diagnosed GBM

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: radiationcellreceivevaccinepatients must
  Phrases that lowered it: mripatients whojointsfemalewomen
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 8940 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Immunotherapy Targeted Against Cytomegalovirus in Patients With Newly-Diagnosed WHO Grade IV Unmethylated Glioma NCT03927222 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
• Phase I Study of a Dendritic Cell Vaccine for Patients With Either Newly Diagnosed or Recurrent Glioblastoma NCT02010606 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability of CVGBM in Adults With Newly Diagnosed MGMT-Unmethylated Glioblastoma or Astrocytoma NCT05938387 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Cytomegalovirus (CMV) RNA-Pulsed Dendritic Cells for Pediatric Patients and Young Adults With WHO Grade IV Glioma, Recurrent Malignant Glioma, or Recurrent Medulloblastoma NCT03615404 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Multi Peptide Vaccination with XS15 in Addition to Standard Postoperative Radiation Therapy and Temozolomide Chemotherapy in Newly Diagnosed Glioblastoma NCT04842513 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.