A Phase 1, Dose Finding Study of CC-90002 in Subjects With Advanced Solid and Hematologic Cancers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-12-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancersubjects within subjectstransplantleukemia
  Phrases that lowered it: myelomaopen labelsolidwith advancedmultiple
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 44 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 29097 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Trial of PF-07901800 (TTI-621) for Patients With Hematologic Malignancies and Selected Solid Tumors NCT02663518 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
• A Study of CC-90002 in Subjects With Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) and High-risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) NCT02641002 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• A Phase I Clinical Study of HMPL-A83 in Patients With Advanced Malignant Neoplasm NCT05429008 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Safety and Efficacy Study of CC-90011 in Participants With Relapsed and/or Refractory Solid Tumors and Non-Hodgkin's Lymphomas NCT02875223 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials terminated
• A Phase 1 Study Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, and Initial Efficacy of IBI188 in Advanced Malignancies NCT03717103 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.