Effectiveness of Zonisamide in Alcohol Dependent Veterans
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (234 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2018-10-01, after 2015-03-01 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-10-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: or equalequal togreaterdefinedchronic
Phrases that lowered it: rheumatoidarthritisalcoholdrinkingday -
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 154 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 172 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 85.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 7 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 21 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 172 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 154 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2337 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 630 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 85.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- zonisamide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Zonisamide Treatment of Alcohol Use Disorder: an Evaluation of Efficacy and Mechanism of Action NCT02900352 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
- Interdisciplinary Study of A Novel Anticonvulsant in Alcoholism NCT02901041 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Zonisamide for Heavy Drinkers With Bipolar Disorder NCT01566370 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials terminated
- Diclofenac Dose Response Study NCT06636227 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Interdisciplinary Study of Two Novel Anticonvulsants in Alcoholism NCT00862563 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.