Phase I, Dose-escalation Trial of BAY1187982 in Subjects With Advanced Solid Tumors Known to Express Fibroblast Growth Factor Receptor 2 (FGFR2)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-07-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerbreastadvancedtumorsreceptor
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluatepharmacodynamicssafetyconjugate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 116 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 547 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dose Escalation Pan-FGFR (Fibroblast Growth Factor Receptor) Inhibitor (Rogaratinib) NCT01976741 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• First-in-man Dose Escalation Study of BAY1179470 in Patients With Advanced, Refractory Solid Tumors NCT01881217 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• A Study Evaluating Safety and Pharmacokinetics of ABBV-221 in Subjects With Advanced Solid Tumor Types Likely to Exhibit Elevated Levels of Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor NCT02365662 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials terminated
• Phase I Study to Determine the Maximum Tolerable Dose of BAY94-9343 in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors. NCT01439152 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• A Dose Escalation, Dose Expansion Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Antitumor Activity of MEDI-575, in Subjects With Advanced Tumors. NCT00816400 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.