A Double-blind Study of Paclitaxel in Combination With Reparixin or Placebo for Metastatic Triple-Negative Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-03-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerher2metastatichepatitisvirus
  Phrases that lowered it: combinationpatientsevaluaterelapsedaccording
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pilot Study to Evaluate Reparixin With Weekly Paclitaxel in Patients With HER 2 Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer (MBC) NCT02001974 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Toxicities of PLX038, in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Triple-negative Breast Cancer NCT06162351 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• A Phase 3, Multi-Center Study of Gemcitabine/Carboplatin, With or Without BSI-201, in Patients With ER-, PR-, and Her2-Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00938652 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• Preventive stRategy for IMMU132-relatED AEs in TNBC or Luminal Breast Cancer- PRIMED NCT05520723 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• PAKT: AZD5363 in Combination With Paclitaxel in Triple-Negative Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02423603 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.