Quantitative Evaluation of [18F]T807 as a Potential PET Radioligand for Imaging Tau in Patients With Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (201 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mrisubject hasthe subjectalzheimerscore
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyvolunteerssubjectsagedinsulin
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 48.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 90 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 1773 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Longitudinal Evaluation of a Radiotracer for Use in Tau Tracking NCT03919669 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• A Phase I [18F]THK-5351 Positron Emission Tomography Study in Healthy Subjects and Alzheimer's Disease NCT03112096 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of [18F]MNI-1126 as an Imaging Marker for Synaptic Density Loss NCT03587649 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Phase 1 Test-retest Evaluation of [18F]MNI-958 PET NCT03545789 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Evaluation Comparing Tau PET Radiotracers, [18F]GTP1 and [18F]PI-2620 or [18F]MK-6240 in Subjects With Normal Cognition or Prodromal to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT04566003 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.