Safety and Efficacy of ENV515 Travoprost Extended Release (XR) in Patients With Bilateral Ocular Hypertension or Primary Open Angle Glaucoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-02-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: progressiontreatedmultiplestageadequately
  Phrases that lowered it: ocular hypertensionopen angleangle glaucomaiopevaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 69.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy Study of Travoprost APS Versus TRAVATAN NCT00848536 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Travoprost/Timolol BAC-free NCT00760539 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Phase III Study of Travoprost/Timolol Combination in Patients With Open-Angle Glaucoma or Ocular Hypertension NCT00672997 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Travoprost 3-Month Safety and Efficacy Study NCT01453855 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Phase 2b Study Evaluating Safety and Efficacy of OTX-TP Compared to Timolol Drops in the Treatment of Subjects With Open Angle Glaucoma or Ocular Hypertension NCT02312544 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.