Study of Etanercept Monotherapy vs Methotrexate Monotherapy for Maintenance of Rheumatoid Arthritis Remission

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-12-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hasmonths priorsclerosismay applycriteria may
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsmonotherapyrheumatoidin periodday
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 43.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 80 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 453572 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 355 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Investigate the Safety and Efficacy of Tregalizumab in Subjects (MTX-IR) With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01999192 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
• Etanercept and Methotrexate in Combination or as Monotherapy in Psoriatic Arthritis NCT02376790 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• A Multicenter, Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Study of the Combination Therapy of T-614 and Methotrexate in Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients With an Inadequate Response to Methotrexate NCT00965757 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Study Comparing Etanercept (ETN) Against a Placebo for Etanercept on a Background Nonsteroidal Anti Inflammatory Drug (NSAIDs) in the Treatment of Early Spondyloarthritis (SpA) Patients Who do Not Have X-ray Structural Changes NCT01258738 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Trial to Study the Effects of Revamilast in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01430507 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.