A Randomized, Open Label, Prospective Study to Explore the Clinical Characteristics of Oral MNK155 and Norco 7.5mg/325 When Used for the Treatment of Moderate to Severe Post Operative Pain

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Primary purpose: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: postsurgerysubjectapplyconsent prior
  Phrases that lowered it: subjects whopaincriteria subjectsopioidstudy subjects
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 80.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• OxyNorm Capsules in Post-Operative Pain Study NCT01675635 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Ketorolac / Pitofenone / Fenpiverinium for the Treatment of Patients With Pain After Surgical Abdominal and Pelvic Operations NCT05607641 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Intravenous Meloxicam in Subjects With Moderate-to-severe Pain Following Abdominal Surgery NCT06904248 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of N1539 Following Major Surgery NCT02720692 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Pharmacokinetics, Safety, and Efficacy of SPRIX in 12 to 17 Year Old Patients vs. Adult Patients Undergoing Open Surgical Procedures NCT01819610 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.