Regorafenib Plus Gemcitabine in Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 24% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2018-05-10, after 2016-06-14 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-05-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: randomizationstablebraindialysiscells
Phrases that lowered it: triallinepatientsor suspectedmonths before -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 24.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 38 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 148 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 148 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 24.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 38 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 19537 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4666 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 95.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 27.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- gemcitabine, regorafenib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Regorafenib in Treating Patients With Advanced or Metastatic Neuroendocrine Tumors NCT02259725 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
- RX-3117 in Combination With Abraxane® in Subjects With Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT03189914 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- Atu027 Plus Gemcitabine in Advanced or Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer (Atu027-I-02) NCT01808638 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
- Trametinib and Hydroxychloroquine in Treating Patients With Pancreatic Cancer NCT03825289 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
- Study Assessing Safety and Efficacy of Combination of BL-8040 and Pembrolizumab in Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer Patients NCT02826486 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.