Single Rising Dose Trial of BI 425809 for Healthy Japanese and Chinese Male Subjects
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-08-06, after 2015-05-11 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-08-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: safety tolerabilitysubjectsdisordersprtolerability and
Phrases that lowered it: healthyblood pressurerelevant90greater than -
Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 130 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 327 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 45 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 327 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 130 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- This Study is Done in Healthy Chinese and Japanese Volunteers; it Looks at How BI 690517 is Taken up in the Body and How Well it is Tolerated NCT03206632 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of BI 113608 in Healthy Asian and Caucasian Male Volunteers NCT01922349 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Single Rising Oral Doses of BI 1060469 in Healthy Asian Male Volunteers NCT02183545 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Single Rising Oral Doses of BI 1021958 in Healthy Chinese and Japanese Male Volunteers NCT01638598 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- A Study in Healthy Japanese Men to Test How Different Doses of BI 690517 Are Taken Up in the Body and How Well They Are Tolerated NCT03608072 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.