A Study of Palbociclib in Combination With Fulvestrant or Tamoxifen as Treatment for Metastatic Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellsmetastaticsurgeryrisktherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsbiopsynormalupperpatients with
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 148 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 472 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 75.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• PAlbociclib and Circulating Tumor DNA for ESR1 Mutation Detection NCT03079011 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Palbociclib in Molecularly Characterized ER-positive/HER2-negative Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02536742 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• HR+/HER2- Advanced Breast Cancer and Endocrine Resistance NCT03322215 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
• Evaluation of Lasofoxifene Combined With Abemaciclib in Advanced or Metastatic ER+/HER2- Breast Cancer With an ESR1 Mutation NCT04432454 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Palbociclib in Combination With Tamoxifen as First Line Therapy for Metastatic Hormone Receptor Positive Breast Cancer NCT02668666 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.