Comparative Safety and Efficacy of Two Rosacea Products in the Treatment of Facial Erythema of Rosacea
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (238 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-12-31, after 2015-03-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: agentsantidiseasecarcinomaprior
Phrases that lowered it: acnetopicalrosaceadermatitisfacial -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 50.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 13 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 13 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 3970 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1243 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 50.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 4.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- brimonidine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Clinical Endpoint Bioequivalence Study of Oxymetazoline Hydrochloride Cream NCT03954444 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- Comparative Safety and Efficacy of Two Treatments in the Treatment of Inflammatory Lesions of Rosacea NCT02795117 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- Bioequivalence Study of Ivermectin Cream 1% in Treatment of Moderate to Severe Facial Rosacea NCT04106726 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Topical Minocycline Gel in Patients With Papulopustular Rosacea NCT03263273 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- Clinical Endpoint Study of Ivermectin 1% Cream NCT02840461 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.