To Compare Safety and Efficacy of Perrigo's Drug Product Compared to an FDA Approved Drug Product in the Treatment of Actinic Keratosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectpriortherapymonthstreatment
  Phrases that lowered it: treatment areasubjectsactinicfacekeratosis
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 35.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 12 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• To Compare Safety and Efficacy of Perrigo's Drug Compared to an FDA Approved Drug in the Treatment of Actinic Keratosis NCT02459795 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Multi-Center Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of KX2-391 Ointment 1% on AK on Face or Scalp NCT03285477 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Two Concentrations of DFD-07 Cream, in Subjects With Actinic Keratosis (AK) of the Face and/or Scalp Over a 12-week Treatment Period NCT03116698 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of AM001 Cream in the Treatment of Actinic Keratosis NCT03210740 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Multi-Center Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of KX2-391 Ointment 1% on Actinic Keratosis on Face or Scalp (AK004) NCT03285490 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.