Activity of Regorafenib in Combination With Chemotherapy in Patients With Advanced Biliary Tract Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 26% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-12-31, after 2014-09-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellbowelcancerto determinesolid
Phrases that lowered it: accordingrespiratorycombinationtrialgroup -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 18 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 13 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 26182 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4511 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 96.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 26.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- gemcitabine, oxaliplatin, regorafenib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Single Agent Regorafenib in Refractory Advanced Biliary Cancers NCT02115542 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
- A Phase 2 Trial of Regorafenib as A Single Agent in Advanced and Metastatic Biliary Tract Carcinoma/Cholangiocarcinoma Patients Who Have Failed First-line Chemotherapy NCT02053376 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
- Regorafenib Combined With Irinotecan as Second-line in Patients With Metastatic Gastro-oesophageal Adenocarcinomas NCT03722108 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
- FOLFOX Plus Regorafenib in Patients With Unresectable or Metastatic Esophagogastric Cancer NCT01913639 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
- Regorafenib and Cetuximab in Patients With Advanced Malignancy NCT02095054 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.