Study to Evaluate the Safety and Tolerability of a New Drug Named Lu AF20513 in Patients With Mild Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-07-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mristrokemultiplediseaseassociation
  Phrases that lowered it: disorderstrpatientpatientsclinical
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 34 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 55 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study With Lu AF20513 in Patients With Mild Alzheimer's Disease (AD) or Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) Due to AD NCT03819699 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Long-term Safety and Tolerability of Lu AF20513 and the Antibody Response in Patients With Alzheimer's Disease (AD) NCT03668405 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
• Tolerability and Safety of Subcutaneous Administration of AFFITOPE AD02 in Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT00633841 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• Study With Lu AF87908 in Healthy Participants and Participants With Alzheimer's Disease NCT04149860 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Clinical- and Immunological Activity, Safety and Tolerability of Different Doses / Formulations of AFFITOPE AD02 in Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT01117818 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.