Iodine I-131 With or Without Selumetinib in Treating Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic Thyroid Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: carcinomaradiationrandomizationcancercell
  Phrases that lowered it: applyinvestigatorwomenpatients withtumors
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy of MEK (Trametinib) and BRAFV600E (Dabrafenib) Inhibitors With Radioactive Iodine (RAI) for the Treatment of Refractory Metastatic Differentiated Thyroid Cancer NCT03244956 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• A Trial of Lenvatinib (E7080) in Subjects With Iodine-131 Refractory Differentiated Thyroid Cancer to Evaluate Whether an Oral Starting Dose of 18 Milligram (mg) Daily Will Provide Comparable Efficacy to a 24 mg Starting Dose, But Have a Better Safety Profile NCT02702388 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• A Study to Try to Bring Back Radioiodine Sensitivity in Patients With Advanced Thyroid Cancer. NCT03469011 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials terminated
• Pasireotide & Everolimus in Adult Patients With Radioiodine-Refractory Differentiated & Medullary Thyroid Cancer NCT01270321 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Adaptive Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor (TKI) Therapy In Patients With Thyroid Cancer NCT03630120 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.