A Therapeutic Equivalence Study of Two Metronidazole Gel 1% Topical Treatments of Rosacea

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 3% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (238 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: diagnosis ofof childbearingpurposechildbearing potential18 years
  Phrases that lowered it: rosaceagelvehiclethe efficacysubjects
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 16791 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of 0444 Gel in the Treatment of Inflammatory Lesions of Rosacea NCT01016782 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Therapeutic Equivalence Study of Two Metronidazole 1%Topical Gel Treatments for Patients With Rosacea NCT01513863 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of a Topical Minocycline Foam in Patients With Papulopustular Rosacea NCT02601963 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Study (Study 1) to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of FMX103 1.5% Topical Minocycline Foam in the Treatment of Facial Papulopustular Rosacea NCT03142451 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Study (Study 2) to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of FMX103 1.5% Topical Minocycline Foam in the Treatment of Facial Papulopustular Rosacea NCT04608500 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.