11C- and 18F-Choline PET/MR Imaging for Prostate Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 21% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: petriskimaginghighfunction
  Phrases that lowered it: prostatediseasepelvicthe studydiagnosis
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 25.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: diagnostic (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 448 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 150 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 56409 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 20554 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Expanded Access to Diagnostic Imaging for Staging of Recurrent Prostate Cancer NCT02260817 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• C-11 Choline PET-CT Scan in Finding Metastases in Patients With Newly Diagnosed High-Risk Prostate Cancer NCT00804245 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Staging Prostate Cancer With Hybrid C11-Choline PET/MR and mpMRI NCT03404648 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• 68GA-PSMA-11 PET/CT Scan in Impacting Treatment Strategies for Patients With Prostate Cancer NCT04050215 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Positron Emission Tomography and Magnetic Resonance Imaging for Prostate Cancer NCT00924313 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.