Effect of Gefapixant (AF-219/MK-7264) on Cough Reflex Sensitivity (MK-7264-015)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 5% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-05-16, after 2015-04-29 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-05-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjects withrandomizationchild bearingbearing potentialof child
Phrases that lowered it: healthyparticipantssmokingthe effectscreening -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 25% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- gefapixant, mk7264
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Effect of Gefapixant (MK-7264/AF-219) on Cough Reflex Sensitivity in Healthy and Chronic Cough Participants (MK-7264-014) NCT02476890 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- A 12-Week Study in Participants With Refractory Chronic Cough (MK-7264-012) NCT02612610 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- An 8-Week Refractory Chronic Cough Study (MK-7264-021) NCT02612623 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- A Dose Escalation Study of Gefapixant (AF-219/MK-7264) in Refractory Chronic Cough (MK-7264-010) NCT02349425 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- A Study to Assess the Efficacy of Gefapixant (MK-7264/AF-219), in Participants With Chronic Cough (MK-7264-006) NCT01432730 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.