Cardiovascular Risk in HIV Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy Therapy: The MHEART Study
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (283 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-01-31, after 2015-04-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: linepatienttherapydiseasepatients
Phrases that lowered it: nasalhealthartasthmaeffect -
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 64 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 44322 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 376 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 214822 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 376 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 64 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 214822 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 44322 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 73.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- aspirin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Aspirin and Antiretroviral Therapy in HIV Infected Patients NCT00783614 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials terminated
- Inflammatory Pathogenesis of Coronary Atherosclerosis in HIV NCT02624180 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- Pentoxifylline and Combination Antiretroviral Therapy to Improve Blood Vessel Function in HIV-Infected People NCT00864916 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- A Clinical Trial for People HIV+ Age > 50 at Risk for Heart Disease NCT01578772 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- Elite Controller and ART-treated HIV+ Statin Versus ASA Treatment Intervention Study NCT02081638 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.