Front-line Therapy With Carfilzomib, Lenalidomide, and Dexamethasone Induction

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-11-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapyradiotherapycellstemtransplantation
  Phrases that lowered it: multiplein clinicalgroupclinical trials65
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 32.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 41 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 67 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Lenalidomide-Adriamycin-Dexamethasone (RAD) Induction Followed by Stem Cell Transplant in Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma NCT00925821 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of the Safety and the Efficacy of Carfilzomib Combined With Cyclophosphamide and Dexamethasone (CCyd) or Lenalidomide and Dex (CRd) Followed by ASCT or 12 Cycles of Carf Combined With Dex and Len for Patients Eligible for ASCT With Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma. NCT02203643 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• Lenalidomide and Low Dose Dexamethasone Versus Bortezomib, Lenalidomide and Low Dose Dexamethasone for Induction, in Patients With Previously Untreated Multiple Myeloma NCT01530594 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Carfilzomib, Cyclophosphamide, Dexamethasone in Transplant Eligible Newly Diagnosed High-risk Multiple Myeloma NCT02217163 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• A Safety Study of Carfilzomib, Cyclophosphamide & Dexamethasone Prior to ASCT in Patients With Newly Diagnosed Myeloma NCT01660750 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.