Regorafenib in Combination With Paclitaxel in Advanced Oesophagogastric Carcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: of studycarcinomacellthe patientsquamous
  Phrases that lowered it: combinationsafety ofinteractionfemaledrugs
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 42 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 27 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study Maintenance Regorafenib vs Placebo, no Progression Patients After I Line Chemotherapy Metastatic Gastric Cancer NCT03627728 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Regorafenib Combined With Irinotecan as Second-line in Patients With Metastatic Gastro-oesophageal Adenocarcinomas NCT03722108 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• Regorafenib Second Line Treatment of Metastatic or Advanced Upper GI Cancers NCT02241720 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
• Ramucirumab Plus FOLFIRI Versus Ramucirumab Plus Paclitaxel in Patients With Advanced or Metastatic Gastric Cancer, Who Failed One Prior Line of Palliative Chemotherapy NCT03081143 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• RegoNivo vs Standard of Care Chemotherapy in AGOC NCT04879368 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.