Study of the Effect of BG00012 on MRI Lesions and Pharmacokinetics in Pediatric Subjects With RRMS

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-09-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: pediatricrelapsingsclerosisprogressiveprimary
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectsdisorderspharmacokineticsthe effecteffect of
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 17.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 53 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 180 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 42382 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 14411 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 17 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 10 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Dimethyl Fumarate (Tecfidera) and Peginterferon Beta-1a (Plegridy) for the Treatment of Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis in Pediatric Participants NCT03870763 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials terminated
• Phase 3 Efficacy and Safety Study of BG00012 in Pediatric Participants With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) NCT02283853 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• BG00012 Phase 2 Combination Study in Participants With Multiple Sclerosis NCT01156311 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• BG00012 and Delay of Disability Progression in Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis NCT02430532 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• A 24-Hour Pharmacokinetic Determination of BG00012 After Single-Day Oral Administration in Subjects With MS NCT00837785 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.