A Phase I Study of a DNA Vaccine Encoding Androgen Receptor Ligand-Binding Domain (AR LBD) +/-GMCSF

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-11-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticcellboneevidencecancer
  Phrases that lowered it: participantperiodparticipantsmonthvaccine
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 49 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 251 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dendritic Cell (DC)-Based Vaccines Loaded With Allogeneic Prostate Cell Lines in Combination With Androgen Ablation in Patients With Prostate Cancer NCT00970203 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Multi-Epitope TARP Peptide Autologous Dendritic Cell Vaccination in Men With Stage D0 Prostate Cancer NCT02362451 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Enzalutamide With or Without Vaccine Therapy for Advanced Prostate Cancer NCT01867333 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• PROSTVAC in Combination With Nivolumab in Men With Prostate Cancer NCT02933255 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Sipuleucel-T, CT-011, and Cyclophosphamide for Advanced Prostate Cancer NCT01420965 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.