Multiple Ascending Dose Study in Healthy Male Subjects and Overweight to Obese Male and Female Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (816 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ascendingtolerabilitypatientdosesmetformin
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyand safetymmhgkgbody
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 58 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 111579 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 792 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Test How SB756050 Affects Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus After 6 Days of Dosing. NCT00733577 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Albiglutide + Insulin Glargine Versus Insulin Lispro + Insulin Glargine Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT02229227 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• The Potential of Dapagliflozin Plus Exenatide in Obese Insulin-resistant Patients NCT03419624 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Single and Multiple Doses of Oral Insulin or Placebo in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT02954601 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Study in Type 2 Diabetics of Single and Multiple Doses of Orally Administered GSK1292263 to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics NCT01119846 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.