Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of Ascending Single- and Multiple-Doses of TAK-020 in Healthy Volunteers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-05-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: limited tonot limitedhepatitishcvvirus
  Phrases that lowered it: healthymalevaccinevolunteerssingle
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 78 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 17 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics Study of TAK-828 Escalating Multiple-Doses in Healthy Participants NCT02817516 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials terminated
• TAK-020 Relative Bioavailability and Food Effect Study in Healthy Participants NCT02723201 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A TAK-831-1001, Single and Multiple Rising Dose Study in Healthy Participants NCT02566759 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials terminated
• Phase 1, TAK-915-1001, Single-Rising Dose, Multiple-Rising Dose, Drug-Drug Interaction, Relative Bioavailability, Food Effect, and Effect on Elderly Participants Study NCT02461160 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Phase 1 TAK-906 Single and Multiple Ascending Dose Study in Japanese Healthy Male Participants NCT03237156 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.