A Study of Varlilumab (Anti-CD27) and Ipilimumab and CDX-1401 in Patients With Unresectable Stage III or IV Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 32% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-11-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: melanomaipilimumabadvancedunresectableprior
  Phrases that lowered it: open labelvaccinesafetymalelabel study
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 28.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 5365 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of a Sequencing Schedule of Cobimetinib Plus Vemurafenib Followed by Immunotherapy With an Anti- PD-L1 Antibody in Patients With Unresectable or Metastatic BRAF V600 Mutant Melanoma NCT02902029 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• 4SC-202 in Combination With Pembrolizumab in Patients Primary Refractory/Non-responding to Prior Anti-PD-1 Therapy NCT03278665 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• Vemurafenib Plus Cobimetinib in Advanced or Metastatic Melanoma Patients NCT03224208 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated
• Study of Efficacy and Safety of Novel Spartalizumab Combinations in Patients With Previously Treated Unresectable or Metastatic Melanoma NCT03484923 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• A Study of Varlilumab and Atezolizumab in Patients With Advanced Cancer NCT02543645 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.