Closed-loop Control of Postprandial Glucose Levels in Adults With Type 1 Diabetes
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (220 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-10-31, after 2015-05-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 71.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: acutehormoneinfusionseverethe subject
Phrases that lowered it: mgsingledosecomparethe trial -
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 5 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 7 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 9 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 7 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 41681 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 11343 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 71.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, immunology, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- glucagon, insulin aspart, insulin lispro
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Closed-loop Control of Postprandial Glucose Levels After Meals With Different Macronutrients Content in Adults With Type 1 Diabetes NCT02774876 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Safety of Overestimation of a Meal Insulin Bolus in the Context of Dual-hormone Closed-loop Operation - Part 2 NCT02798250 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- Insulin-plus-pramlintide Closed-loop Strategy to Regulate Glucose Levels Without Carbohydrate Counting NCT03800875 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- Closed-loop Control of Glucose Levels (Artificial Pancreas) for 12 Days in Adults With Type 1 Diabetes NCT02846831 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Safety of Overestimation of a Meal Insulin Bolus in the Context of Dual-hormone Closed-loop Operation NCT02626936 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.