Optimal Dose Finding Study ABT-199 and Ibrutinib in MCL

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 18% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: celllymphomato determinecancerthe purpose
  Phrases that lowered it: disorderhistoryallergythe investigatorlaboratory
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 1910 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Ibrutinib, in Patients With Mantle Cell Lymphoma Who Progress After Bortezomib Therapy NCT01599949 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Effect of Oral Venetoclax Tablet in Combination With Oral Ibrutinib Capsule on Best Overall Response of Complete Response in Adult Japanese Participants With Relapsed/Refractory Mantle Cell Lymphoma NCT04477486 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Study of Ibrutinib (a Bruton's Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor), Versus Temsirolimus in Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Mantle Cell Lymphoma Who Have Received at Least One Prior Therapy NCT01646021 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Study of the Bruton's Tyrosine Kinase (BTK) Inhibitor Ibrutinib in Participants With Relapsed or Refractory Mantle Cell Lymphoma NCT02169180 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Bendamustine Hydrochloride in Combination With Rituximab in Patients With Relapsed Refractory Mantle Cell Lymphoma NCT00891839 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.