Phase I Trial of 4'-Thio-2'-Deoxycytidine (TdCyd) in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 24% of the time (231 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-07-21, after 2015-05-18 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-07-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerheartlongwomencells
Phrases that lowered it: participantstumorssolidtrialstandard therapy -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 120 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 145 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 120 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 954 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 145 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- FdCyd and THU for Advanced Solid Tumors NCT01534598 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
- A Multi-Histology Phase II Study of 5-Fluoro-2'-Deoxycytidine With Tetrahydrouridine (FdCyd + THU) NCT00978250 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
- TRC102 and Temozolomide for Relapsed Solid Tumors and Lymphomas NCT01851369 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
- M7824 (MSB0011359C) in Combination With Gemcitabine in Adults With Previously Treated Advanced Adenocarcinoma of the Pancreas NCT03451773 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
- Nivolumab in Combination With Metronomic Chemotherapy in Paediatrics Refractory / Relapsing Solid Tumors NCT03585465 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.