Study of Nivolumab Plus Chemotherapy in Patients With Advanced Cancer (NivoPlus)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 36% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-11-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientchemotherapypriorctsurgery
  Phrases that lowered it: femalesinglebloodmaleallergic
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 83.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 31.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 43960 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase II Clinical Trial of NIVO-IPI-TAXANE in Untreated Metastatic NSCLC NCT03573947 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• A Study of Nivolumab +/- Nab-paclitaxel in Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02967133 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
• Single Agent Chemotherapy +/- Nivolumab in Patients With Advanced Squamous or Non-squamous NSCLC With Primary Resistance to Prior PD-1 or PDL-1 Inhibitor NCT03041181 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• ALT-803 Plus Nivolumab in Patients With Pretreated, Advanced or Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02523469 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Fostering Efficacy of Anti - PD-1 - Treatment: Nivolumab Plus Radiotherapy in Advanced NSCLC NCT03044626 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.