Regimen Switch to Dolutegravir + Rilpivirine From Current Antiretroviral Regimen in Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Infected and Virologically Suppressed Adults (SWORD-1)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (876 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-05-30, after 2015-04-14 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-05-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: failureqtcqtchild bearingsubjects
Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipanthiv infectedhiv rnavaccine -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 28 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 65.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 95 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 9 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 95 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 28 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 667 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 546 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 65.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 4.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, immunology, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- dolutegravir
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Regimen Switch to Dolutegravir + Rilpivirine From Current Antiretroviral Regimen in Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Infected and Virologically Suppressed Adults (SWORD-2) NCT02422797 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Switch Study to Evaluate Dolutegravir Plus Lamivudine in Virologically Suppressed Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Positive Adults (TANGO) NCT03446573 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Regimen Switch to Dolutegravir/Lamivudine Fixed Dose Combination From Current Antiretroviral Regimen in HIV-1 Infected and Virologically Suppressed Adults (SALSA) NCT04021290 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Open-Label Multi-Centre Randomised Switch Study to Evaluate Virological Efficacy Over 96Weeks Of 2-Drug Therapy With Dolutegravir(DTG)/Rilpivirine(RPV) Fixed Dose Combination(FDC) in Antiretroviral Treatment-Experienced HIV-1 Infected Subjects Virologically Suppressed With NNRTI Mutation K103N NCT05349838 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- A Phase IIIb Study of the Safety, Efficacy, and Tolerability of Switching to a Fixed-dose Combination of Abacavir/Dolutegravir/ Lamivudine From Current Antiretroviral Regimen NCT02105987 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.