Abatacept for SLE Arthritis (IM101-330)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 30% of the time (37 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-09-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: women oftreatingcellscellregimen
  Phrases that lowered it: drugmoderate toto severestudymedication
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 53.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 76 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 245 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Clarification of Abatacept Effects in SLE With Integrated Biologic and Clinical Approaches NCT02270957 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Study of VIB7734 for the Treatment of Moderate to Severely Active SLE NCT04925934 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Anifrolumab Compared to Placebo in Adult Subjects With Active Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT02446899 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Two Doses of Anifrolumab Compared to Placebo in Adult Subjects With Active Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT02446912 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• A 52-Week, Randomized, Double-Blind, Parallel-Group, Placebo-Controlled Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of a 200-mcg Dose of IPP-201101 Plus Standard of Care in Patients With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT02504645 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.