A Study of Ramucirumab (LY3009806) Versus Placebo in Participants With Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Elevated Baseline Alpha-Fetoprotein

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-11-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 144 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationplacebochronicpriorstage
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsevaluate theto evaluatebleeding
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 75.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 954 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Ramucirumab (IMC-1121B) Drug Product (DP) and Best Supportive Care (BSC) Versus Placebo and BSC as 2nd-Line Treatment in Participants With Hepatocellular Carcinoma After 1st-Line Therapy With Sorafenib NCT01140347 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• Trial of ARQ 197 in Patients With Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) Who Have Failed One Prior Systemic Therapy NCT00988741 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• A Multicenter, Open-Label, Phase 3 Trial to Compare the Efficacy and Safety of Lenvatinib (E7080) Versus Sorafenib in First-line Treatment of Participants With Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma NCT01761266 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• LOcoregional vs Systemic Therapy in Patients With BCLC Stage B HCC NCT05537402 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• Sorafenib and Nivolumab in Treating Participants With Unresectable, Locally Advanced or Metastatic Liver Cancer NCT03439891 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.