Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation With Ixazomib for High Risk Multiple Myeloma (BMT CTN 1302)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (376 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-10-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: donorpatients mustcellpatientcells
  Phrases that lowered it: multiplemyelomaplasmafev1line
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 282 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Combination Chemotherapy and Donor Stem Cell Transplant Followed by Ixazomib Citrate Maintenance Therapy in Treating Patients With Relapsed High-Risk Multiple Myeloma NCT02504359 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• Stem Cell Transplant With Lenalidomide Maintenance in Patients With Multiple Myeloma (BMT CTN 0702) NCT01109004 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Busulfan, Melphalan, and Bortezomib Before First-Line Stem Cell Transplant in Treating Patients With Multiple Myeloma NCT01605032 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Myeloma-Developing Regimens Using Genomics (MyDRUG) NCT03732703 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Melphalan+Bortezomib as a Conditioning Regimen for Autologous and Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplants in Multiple Myeloma NCT00948922 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.