Modified FOLFIRINOX for Gemcitabine Refractory Pancreatic Cancer: A Phase II Multicenter Trial
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2017-03-02, after 2015-08-28 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-03-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 150 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 19 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerpatientscellchemotherapypurpose of
Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andpancreatictractold -
Sponsor's past trials: 260 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 19 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 260 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 2.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 150 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of Modified FOLFIRINOX in Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT01523457 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
- Gemcitabine and Paclitaxel vs Gemcitabine Alone After FOLFIRINOX Failure in Metastatic Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma NCT03943667 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
- A Trial of Gemcitabine, Infusional 5-Fluorouracil and Cisplatin for Advanced Pancreatic and Biliary Cancers NCT01661114 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- A Randomized Phase III Trial Comparing Folfirinox to Gemcitabine in Locally Advanced Pancreatic Carcinoma NCT02539537 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- Second Line Chemotherapy for Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT01543412 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.