Continuous Antibiotic Prophylaxis in Colorectal Surgery

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: surgerybowelpatientpatientsundergoing
  Phrases that lowered it: allergysinglebloodbody weightcompare
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 9 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Intravenous Versus Combined Oral and Intravenous Antimicrobial Prophylaxis for the Prevention of Surgical Site Infection in Elective Colorectal Surgery NCT02618720 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of One Dose Prophylactic Antibiotic in Laparoscopic Colorectal Surgery NCT01220661 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Mechanical Bowel Preparation and Oral Antibiotics Before Colon Cancer Surgery NCT03475680 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
• A Study of an Antibiotic Implant in General Surgical Subjects at Higher Risk for Surgical Wound Infection NCT00600925 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• Antibiotic Prophylaxis in the Prevention of Surgical Site Infections After Selected Urgent Abdominal Surgical Procedures NCT01524081 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.