Combined Study - Phase 3b MenB Long Term Persistence in Adolescents

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 3% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-09-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: criteria forprimarynervous systemfollowingunstable
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinationvaccinehealthyvaccinesindividuals
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 2181 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 248 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Assess the Immunological Long-term Persistence of Antibodies (Abs) 2 Years After GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Meningococcal ABCWY Vaccination in the V102_15 (NCT02212457) and Response to a Booster in Adolescents NCT02946385 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate 4-year Antibody Persistence and Booster Response Following MenABCWY Vaccination in Healthy Adolescents and Young Adults Who Previously Participated in Studies V102_02 (NCT01210885) and V102_02E1 (NCT01367158) NCT02451514 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Persistence of Antibodies After Vaccination With Meningococcal Vaccine GSK134612 NCT00955682 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Safety and Immunogenicity of a Single Dose of GlaxoSmithKline's (GSK) Meningococcal MenACWY-CRM Vaccine (Menveo), Administered to Subjects 15 Through 55 Years of Age, Approximately 4-6 Years After Primary ACWY Vaccination NCT02986854 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Comparison of GSK134612 in Subjects Previously Vaccinated Against Meningococcal Disease Versus Non-vaccinated Subjects NCT00661557 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.