The Effect of MElatonin on Depression, Anxiety, CIrcadian and Sleep Disturbances in Patients After Acute Myocardial Syndrome

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (107 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-07-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: acutesyndromecoronaryplacebosclerosis
  Phrases that lowered it: participantseffectalcoholallergicarthritis
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 61.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 14 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• The Melatonin Adjunct in the Acute myocaRdial Infarction Treated With Angioplasty NCT00640094 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated
• Study With Amitriptylin to Evaluate the Efficacy of Melatonin in Treatment of Migraine NCT01357031 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Effect of Quetiapine XR on Sleep in Patients With Major Depression, as Compared With Mirtazapine NCT00782405 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• A Study of Seltorexant as Adjunctive Therapy to Antidepressants in Adult and Elderly Participants With Major Depressive Disorder With Insomnia Symptoms Who Have Responded Inadequately to Antidepressant Therapy NCT04532749 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials terminated
• Comparison of Depression Interventions After Acute Coronary Syndrome NCT01032018 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.