Cattell-Warren Versus Blumgart Techniques of Pancreatico-jejunostomy Following Pancreato-duodenectomy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 36% for any early termination, 27% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: womenundergoingsurgeryto determinedetermine if
  Phrases that lowered it: trialscreeningperiodcompareday
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 30.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 4261 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Secretin Infusion to Prevent Pancreatic Leaks Following Pancreatic Resection NCT02160808 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Cortisone Treatment for the Prevention of Postoperative Pancreatitis and Pancreatitis-induced Complications After Pancreaticoduodenectomy and Distal Pancreatic Resection NCT01460615 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Endoscopic Botulinum Toxin Injection in the Prevention of Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula Following Distal Pancreatectomy NCT04965311 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
• Prevention of Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula by Somatostatin NCT03000946 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Study of Pancreatic Enzyme Replacement on Completion of Adjuvant Chemotherapy for Resected Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma NCT03469258 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.